2026 election results: What they mean for HVAC contractors

Posted on:

November 5, 2026

Tuesday’s election brought bigger shifts than many expected. But for HVAC contractors, the main takeaway hasn’t changed: Washington is headed for gridlock, and the biggest policy fights over the next two years will happen in the states.

A new contractor is also joining Congress: Congressman-elect Joe Strada from Florida. Champions like Strada–as well as other relationships ACCA holds on both sides of the aisle–will be essential as ACCA works to defend contractor priorities over the next two years.

Federal gridlock is likely

While the margin of Democratic control is larger than expected, it remains true that neither party will hold the 60 Senate votes needed to move controversial legislation. There will be more aggressive oversight of the Trump administration, but the president’s veto pen will keep Congress in check. That puts several ACCA priorities on a tougher path:

Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) modernization. The House passed a bill to limit frequent changes to regional efficiency regulations and preempt states from using air quality rules, like ultra-low NOx regulations, to force electrification. Moving it through the new Congress will be much harder.

Federal preemption. Whether regarding refrigerants or fuel choice, persuading Congress to stop blue states from pursuing aggressive regulatory agendas will be much harder. We must prepare to fight this patchwork of regulations state-by-state.

Efficiency tax credits. Democrats will surely attempt to restore the energy efficiency tax credits eliminated in the One Big Beautiful Bill. But the leading Republican champion for 25C and 179d, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick lost his re-election on Tuesday and crafting a tax bill the president will sign won’t be easy.

Workforce policy is a brighter spot. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle feel the urgency to grow the skilled trades workforce. Bipartisan updates to the National Apprenticeship Act and a reauthorization of the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (WIOA) are still possible.

Democratic staff assure us that provisions of the Employer-Directed Skills Act will be included in WIOA reauthorization, but relationships are essential. As Rep. Bobby Scott prepares to chair the Energy and Labor Committee, it should help that he’s a customer of ACCA Government Relations Committee member Chuck Worley’s company.

What relationships do you have with incoming legislators? Please let us know at govt@acca.org.

The action shifts to the states

It is highly unlikely that federal energy or tax legislation will advance over the next two years. That battlefield shifts to the states, where Democrats are on track to gain control of 12 legislative chambers, six veto-proof supermajorities, and six governor’s offices.

That makes fertile ground for environmental and labor advocates frustrated at the federal level to advance their agenda in a growing number of newly blue states.

“Clean Heating Coalitions” are gearing up to pursue a patchwork of refrigerant regulations in at least a dozen states. Their agenda includes a rapid transition to ultra-low GWP refrigerants and using PFAS regulations to restrict access to the legacy refrigerants you need for service and maintenance.

It’s happening quicker than you might think. Washington State is looking to allow highly flammable A3 refrigerants in homes next year. New York will ban even the new A2L refrigerants in heat pump water heaters starting January 1, and everything else in 2030 and 2034. Changes to the AIM Act’s HFC phasedown are now highly unlikely, so contractors should focus on what’s coming next, not past fights.

Emboldened by success in California and Colorado, as well as favorable court rulings, we expect more states to advance gas bans, highly restrictive building codes, and ultra-low/zero NOx rules that limit consumer choice and effectively force electrification.

There’s opportunity, too. Some states may step in to replace lost federal tax credits. The $8 billion in Home Energy Rebate programs created under the Inflation Reduction Act and rebooted in June. We expect many states to launch over the next few months. Contractors need a seat at the table to make sure these programs work for them and their customers.

What contractors can do now

Take stock of your relationships. The next 2 months are a great time to introduce yourself and your concerns to newly elected officials.

Join the Virtual Contractor Town Hall. ACCA will host a town hall discussion on Tuesday, November 17, from 1:00 to 2:30 PM ET; join and make your voice heard! Share your pain points with state licensing, workforce boards, or regulations so ACCA can craft solutions. Register at marketing.acca.org/virtual-contractor-town-hall.

Come to Washington. Join ACCA Advocacy Day on March 10, 2027, in Washington, D.C., to meet with your lawmakers. Register at accaconference.com/advocacy-day.

Learn about ACCA-PAC. ACCA’s Political Action Committee helps to cultivate relationships with contractor-friendly candidates, all but one of which won election on Tuesday. The 2028 cycle starts today, so we hope you’ll sign up to get the inside scoop at acca.org/advocacy/acca-pac.

Your membership powers the fight

ACCA can’t fight for contractor priorities in Washington or in state capitals without a strong base of contractor members behind it. Lawmakers listen when they know ACCA speaks for contractors in their own districts. Every member adds weight to that voice, and member input shapes the priorities ACCA takes to policymakers. Your ACCA membership, particularly at the silver or gold level, provides essential resources to power our fight. Join or upgrade at acca.org/join.