Updated regulations cause a shift in the refrigerant landscape

Posted on:

August 5, 2026

What contractors need to know about the updated EPA Technology Transitions Rule.

For HVACR contractors in the U.S., keeping up with changing refrigerant regulations is an ongoing challenge. Whether you have residential or commercial customers, or are focused mainly on HVAC or refrigeration, the refrigerant transition is impacting every sector of our industry. As your customers look for advice on how to navigate the regulatory landscape, it’s important to understand the short-and long-term implications.

A recent regulatory change from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) marks another shift in direction that will impact refrigerant decisions for years to come.

In May 2026, the EPA revised its Technology Transitions Rule (of 2023), which delays several compliance timelines until 2032 and updates the global warming potential (GWP) limits for refrigerants used in the retail food and cold storage sectors. Notably, previously passed compliance timelines were not affected by this ruling, such as the 2025 700 GWP limit for residential and commercial HVAC.

Specifically, compliance requirements were updated for the following sectors:

Retail food, supermarket racks (new equipment):

January 1, 2027: 1,400 GWP limit
January 1, 2032 — 150 to 300 GWP limit (depending on charge size)

The rule delays moving to the 150–300 GWP limit for 5 years, allowing the use of HFCs such as R-448A/449A in the interim. It also allows supermarket systems to increase cooling capacity by up to 15% (e.g., adding a new display case) without being considered a new system installation.

Retail food, condensing units (new equipment):

July 27, 2026: 1,400 GWP limit
January 1, 2032: 150 to 300 GWP limit (depending on charge size)

The rule delays moving to the 150–300 GWP for nearly 6 years, allowing the use of HFCs such as R-448A/449A in the interim.

Cold storage warehouse equipment (new equipment):

July 27, 2026: 700 GWP limit.
January 1, 2032: 150 to 300 GWP limit (depending on charge size)

The rule delays moving to the 150–300 GWP limit for 6 years, allowing the use of HFCs such as R-513A in the interim.

Measuring the short- and long-term impacts

In the short term, this revision offers relief to food retailers who haven’t begun the transition to lower-GWP refrigeration equipment. It will give them the option to install new hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)-based equipment with a GWP below 1,400 (likely R-448A/449A) for another 5–6 years.

Across the long term, installing new HFC systems through 2032 might be postponing the inevitable transition, while potentially introducing another unintended set of HFC-refrigerant-related challenges:

Limited refrigerant availability throughout the system lifecycle
Increased refrigerant prices due to restricted HFC supply and potential refrigerant shortages
Servicing challenges

These potential shortages stem from the next phase-down of U.S. HFC supplies under the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act, which will further reduce supplies by 50% in 2029 relative to today. Per the AIM Act (and consistent with the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol), HFC production and consumption in the U.S. will be reduced by 70% of baseline levels in 2029. With available HFC supplies dramatically reduced, price increases and refrigerant shortages are likely, especially if larger-charged systems remain at 1,400 GWP.

Even by the EPA’s estimations, “additional demand for HFCs could result in tighter supply and higher HFC prices for downstream consumers,” as stated in a recent memo. When similar measures were implemented in Europe, legacy HFC refrigerant prices rose by over 1000%. Other countries have experienced similar scenarios.

In the same memo, the EPA also acknowledged that the increased demand for HFCs would outpace consumption allocations, stating that “the demand for HFCs would exceed the amount available to allocate beginning in 2029 if no other actions are taken.” Note: the final step of the U.S. HFC phasedown is an 85% reduction in 2036.

Outside of federal regulations, many states have their own HFC rules, such as California, Washington and New York. There, retailers still must comply with existing low-GWP refrigerant mandates.

Preparing for service challenges

Extending the widespread use of higher GWP HFCs in new systems through 2032 raises questions about contractors’ ability to service them throughout their lifecycles, which are often 20 years or more.

Will enough R-448A/449A supplies be available to satisfy increased demand for the next two decades?
Will it be possible to find reclaimed HFC refrigerant needed for service?
How much will the price of these refrigerants rise?

Hence, it will be increasingly important for contractors to implement best practices for refrigerant leak detection and recovery to help preserve HFC supplies. Remember that centralized, direct-expansion refrigeration systems leak on average at 20 percent annually. Not only does this have significant environmental consequences — including the high global warming potential — but it will also become increasingly expensive to replace refrigerant charges in these systems.

Help your customers avoid future disruptions

Because of the increased potential for HFC supply disruptions and price increases over time, supporting retailers’ transition to lower-GWP CO₂, R-290 or A2L systems helps their chances of avoiding operational instability in the future.

A wide range of lower- and ultra-low-GWP equipment is available today to help them make the transition. Copeland has more than a decade of experience developing and managing next-generation CO₂ (R-744), R-290, and A2L equipment technologies. These proven, reliable and viable compression technologies and controls solutions — for self-contained, distributed and centralized architectures — are ready to help industry partners make a successful refrigerant transition.

Copeland is an ACCA Platinum Strategic Partner. To learn more about our Strategic Partnerships Program, contact partners@acca.org or visit acca.org/partners.

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Copeland

Copeland is a global climate technologies company built to make an impact on a big scale. With decades of expertise and a commitment to innovation, Copeland delivers energy-efficient heating, cooling and cold chain technologies that protect the planet, today and for future generations.